DDM Analysis: MKTX

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$118.10 - $265.68	$171.16
Multi-Stage	$88.21 - $96.16	$92.11
Blended Fair Value	$131.63
Current Price	$174.25
Upside	-24.46%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	8.13%	16.76%	3.02	2.93	2.84	2.67	2.42	2.04	1.67	1.31	1.03	0.79
YoY Growth	-	-	2.77%	3.51%	6.16%	10.19%	18.80%	22.10%	27.70%	27.00%	30.34%	23.36%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.39%	1.36%	0.72%	0.79%	0.49%	0.61%	0.68%	0.60%	0.55%	0.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	219.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	114.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)	104.71

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	43.91	27.45	16.47
Cash Retained (M)	104.71	104.71	104.71
(-) Cash Required (M)	-43.91	-27.45	-16.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)	60.80	77.27	88.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	37.37	37.37	37.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.63	2.07	2.36
LTM Dividend per Share	3.07	3.07	3.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.63	2.07	2.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend	4.70	5.14	5.44
WACC / Discount Rate	9.70%	9.70%	9.70%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$118.10	$171.16	$265.68
Upside / Downside	-32.22%	-1.78%	52.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	219.56	233.83	249.03	265.22	282.46	300.82	309.84
Payout Ratio	52.31%	59.85%	67.39%	74.92%	82.46%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	114.85	139.94	167.81	198.71	232.92	270.73	286.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.70%	9.70%	9.70%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	126.37	127.57	128.77
Year 2 PV (M)	136.84	139.45	142.08
Year 3 PV (M)	146.32	150.53	154.81
Year 4 PV (M)	154.88	160.84	166.97
Year 5 PV (M)	162.57	170.42	178.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,568.94	2,693.02	2,821.85
Equity Value (M)	3,295.93	3,441.82	3,593.04
Shares Outstanding (M)	37.37	37.37	37.37
Fair Value	$88.21	$92.11	$96.16
Upside / Downside	-49.38%	-47.14%	-44.82%

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6383.T	Daifuku Co., Ltd.	1.64%	$80.66	36.37%
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300121.SZ	Shandong Yanggu Huatai Chemical Co., Ltd.	1.63%	$0.21	53.84%
603013.SS	YAPP Automotive Systems Co., Ltd.	1.63%	$0.40	37.85%
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603194.SS	Zhejiang E-P Equipment Co Ltd	1.63%	$0.64	29.27%
603221.SS	Elegant Home-Tech Co., Ltd.	1.63%	$0.21	78.59%
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LDO.MI	Leonardo S.p.A.	1.63%	$0.84	33.82%
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MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (MKTX)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener