Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Mercantil Financeira S.A. - Crédito, Financiamento e Investimento (MERC4.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.95 - $10.18$8.50
Multi-Stage$9.63 - $10.55$10.08
Blended Fair Value$9.29
Current Price$12.30
Upside-24.45%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.51%0.00%0.220.080.080.100.120.170.220.000.000.00
YoY Growth--182.21%-5.81%-12.61%-21.07%-28.67%-23.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.34%1.13%1.29%1.18%1.16%1.76%2.92%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)36.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)24.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.324.572.74
Cash Retained (M)24.4024.4024.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.32-4.57-2.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)17.0819.8321.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)41.0041.0041.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.420.480.53
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.420.480.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.710.780.83
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-0.25%0.75%1.75%
Fair Value$6.95$8.50$10.18
Upside / Downside-43.54%-30.88%-17.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)36.5836.8537.1337.4137.6937.9739.11
Payout Ratio33.30%44.64%55.98%67.32%78.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12.1816.4520.7825.1829.6434.1736.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-0.25%0.75%1.75%
Year 1 PV (M)14.8114.9615.10
Year 2 PV (M)16.8417.1817.52
Year 3 PV (M)18.3618.9219.49
Year 4 PV (M)19.4620.2521.06
Year 5 PV (M)20.1921.2222.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)305.27320.88337.12
Equity Value (M)394.91413.39432.59
Shares Outstanding (M)41.0041.0041.00
Fair Value$9.63$10.08$10.55
Upside / Downside-21.68%-18.02%-14.21%

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