Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Middlefield Banc Corp. (MBCN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$240.58 - $388.38$363.97
Multi-Stage$63.34 - $69.34$66.28
Blended Fair Value$215.13
Current Price$30.01
Upside616.85%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.87%11.78%0.800.850.680.520.470.450.470.410.290.27
YoY Growth---5.93%25.03%29.48%10.59%4.04%-2.49%12.54%44.87%7.66%1.51%
Dividend Yield--2.85%3.59%2.42%2.11%2.26%2.87%2.30%1.69%1.27%1.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)15.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)9.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.171.981.19
Cash Retained (M)9.139.139.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.17-1.98-1.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.967.157.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8.118.118.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.740.880.98
LTM Dividend per Share0.830.830.83
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.740.880.98
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.561.711.81
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$240.58$363.97$388.38
Upside / Downside701.67%1,112.84%1,194.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)15.8416.8617.9619.1320.3721.7022.35
Payout Ratio42.36%51.89%61.42%70.94%80.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.718.7511.0313.5716.3919.5320.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)8.168.248.32
Year 2 PV (M)9.609.789.97
Year 3 PV (M)11.0211.3311.66
Year 4 PV (M)12.4212.8913.39
Year 5 PV (M)13.8014.4615.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)458.58480.73503.73
Equity Value (M)513.58537.45562.21
Shares Outstanding (M)8.118.118.11
Fair Value$63.34$66.28$69.34
Upside / Downside111.06%120.87%131.05%

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