Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Lincoln National Corporation (LNC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - LifeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$94.81 - $140.01$116.46
Multi-Stage$114.84 - $125.80$120.22
Blended Fair Value$118.34
Current Price$40.33
Upside193.43%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.26%6.09%1.701.691.721.761.721.681.601.451.321.13
YoY Growth--0.66%-1.61%-2.82%2.57%2.64%4.84%10.31%10.08%16.67%20.00%
Dividend Yield--4.73%5.34%7.63%2.70%2.76%6.37%2.58%1.98%2.01%2.88%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,109.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)316.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,793.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)421.80263.63158.18
Cash Retained (M)1,793.001,793.001,793.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-421.80-263.63-158.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,371.201,529.381,634.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)180.75180.75180.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share7.598.469.04
LTM Dividend per Share1.751.751.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share7.598.469.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.3310.2110.79
WACC / Discount Rate10.77%10.77%10.77%
Growth Rate0.84%1.84%2.84%
Fair Value$94.81$116.46$140.01
Upside / Downside135.09%188.77%247.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,109.002,147.872,187.462,227.782,268.842,310.662,379.98
Payout Ratio14.98%29.99%44.99%59.99%75.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)316.00644.08984.141,336.521,701.562,079.602,201.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.77%10.77%10.77%
Growth Rate0.84%1.84%2.84%
Year 1 PV (M)575.74581.45587.16
Year 2 PV (M)786.38802.05817.88
Year 3 PV (M)954.63983.321,012.57
Year 4 PV (M)1,086.411,130.151,175.20
Year 5 PV (M)1,186.901,246.931,309.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,167.8016,985.4917,835.93
Equity Value (M)20,757.8621,729.3822,738.08
Shares Outstanding (M)180.75180.75180.75
Fair Value$114.84$120.22$125.80
Upside / Downside184.76%198.09%211.93%

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