Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Kumwell Corporation Public Company Limited (KUMWEL.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Security & Protection ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.97 - $1.41$1.18
Multi-Stage$1.68 - $1.85$1.76
Blended Fair Value$1.47
Current Price$1.16
Upside26.89%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-29.05%0.00%0.050.070.060.090.070.280.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---28.57%16.67%-33.33%28.57%-74.82%7,870.85%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.73%3.86%2.73%3.06%3.22%39.45%0.31%0.31%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)56.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)25.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)30.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.287.054.23
Cash Retained (M)30.6230.6230.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.28-7.05-4.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)19.3423.5726.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)432.91432.91432.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate8.56%8.56%8.56%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.97$1.18$1.41
Upside / Downside-16.55%1.86%21.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)56.4255.8655.3054.7554.2053.6655.27
Payout Ratio45.73%54.58%63.44%72.29%81.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)25.8030.4935.0839.5843.9848.2951.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.56%8.56%8.56%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)27.8028.0928.37
Year 2 PV (M)29.1729.7730.37
Year 3 PV (M)30.0130.9431.89
Year 4 PV (M)30.4131.6732.97
Year 5 PV (M)30.4532.0333.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)580.21610.43641.88
Equity Value (M)728.05762.92799.17
Shares Outstanding (M)432.91432.91432.91
Fair Value$1.68$1.76$1.85
Upside / Downside44.98%51.92%59.14%

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