Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$593.83 - $2,269.68$1,002.34
Multi-Stage$365.06 - $399.54$381.98
Blended Fair Value$692.16
Current Price$425.26
Upside62.76%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.01%0.00%0.600.560.510.430.350.300.250.220.090.00
YoY Growth--7.61%8.61%19.02%24.13%16.51%17.32%17.21%140.30%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.12%0.11%0.17%0.19%0.21%0.28%0.37%0.42%0.28%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)474.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)458.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)94.8259.2635.56
Cash Retained (M)458.74458.74458.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-94.82-59.26-35.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)363.93399.48423.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)23.3123.3123.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share15.6217.1418.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.660.660.66
(+) Excess Retained per Share15.6217.1418.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend16.2717.8018.82
WACC / Discount Rate8.39%8.39%8.39%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$593.83$1,002.34$2,269.68
Upside / Downside39.64%135.70%433.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)474.09504.90537.72572.67609.90649.54669.03
Payout Ratio3.24%20.59%37.94%55.29%72.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.34103.96204.02316.66443.07584.59618.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.39%8.39%8.39%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)95.0195.9196.81
Year 2 PV (M)170.41173.66176.93
Year 3 PV (M)241.72248.66255.73
Year 4 PV (M)309.11321.00333.22
Year 5 PV (M)372.73390.73409.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,318.847,672.358,039.38
Equity Value (M)8,507.828,902.309,311.50
Shares Outstanding (M)23.3123.3123.31
Fair Value$365.06$381.98$399.54
Upside / Downside-14.16%-10.18%-6.05%

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