DDM Analysis: KMDS.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1,449.64 - $3,254.48	$2,099.39
Multi-Stage	$1,083.86 - $1,181.54	$1,131.83
Blended Fair Value	$1,615.61
Current Price	$590.00
Upside	173.83%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
DPS	52.97%	0.00%	37.00	36.00	35.00	21.25	5.25	4.42	0.53	10.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	2.78%	2.86%	64.71%	304.76%	18.85%	732.62%	-94.69%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.97%	7.53%	5.19%	4.96%	1.04%	1.18%	0.14%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	57,829.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	30,400.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	27,429.56

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	11,565.91	7,228.70	4,337.22
Cash Retained (M)	27,429.56	27,429.56	27,429.56
(-) Cash Required (M)	-11,565.91	-7,228.70	-4,337.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)	15,863.65	20,200.87	23,092.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	800.00	800.00	800.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	19.83	25.25	28.87
LTM Dividend per Share	38.00	38.00	38.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	19.83	25.25	28.87
(=) Adjusted Dividend	57.83	63.25	66.87
WACC / Discount Rate	9.71%	9.71%	9.71%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$1,449.64	$2,099.39	$3,254.48
Upside / Downside	145.70%	255.83%	451.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	57,829.56	61,588.49	65,591.74	69,855.20	74,395.79	79,231.51	81,608.46
Payout Ratio	52.57%	60.05%	67.54%	75.03%	82.51%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	30,400.00	36,986.73	44,301.29	52,410.48	61,386.68	71,308.36	75,487.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.71%	9.71%	9.71%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	33,397.03	33,713.59	34,030.15
Year 2 PV (M)	36,119.38	36,807.35	37,501.81
Year 3 PV (M)	38,583.71	39,691.31	40,819.90
Year 4 PV (M)	40,805.80	42,375.08	43,989.19
Year 5 PV (M)	42,800.63	44,867.92	47,014.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)	675,384.28	708,005.59	741,875.40
Equity Value (M)	867,090.83	905,460.84	945,230.78
Shares Outstanding (M)	800.00	800.00	800.00
Fair Value	$1,083.86	$1,131.83	$1,181.54
Upside / Downside	83.71%	91.83%	100.26%

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Financial Statements

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PT Kurniamitra Duta Sentosa, Tbk (KMDS.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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