DDM Analysis: KINO.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$561.31 - $778.39	$670.21
Multi-Stage	$1,161.18 - $1,276.85	$1,217.87
Blended Fair Value	$944.04
Current Price	$1,195.00
Upside	-21.00%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-17.38%	-3.07%	22.73	0.73	10.00	24.87	106.72	59.06	27.97	25.90	38.34	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	2,996.34%	-92.66%	-59.78%	-76.70%	80.70%	111.11%	8.00%	-32.43%	0.00%	-100.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.05%	0.05%	0.66%	0.73%	5.16%	2.94%	1.10%	1.31%	1.53%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	137,117.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	77,453.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)	59,664.06

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	27,423.53	17,139.71	10,283.82
Cash Retained (M)	59,664.06	59,664.06	59,664.06
(-) Cash Required (M)	-27,423.53	-17,139.71	-10,283.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)	32,240.53	42,524.35	49,380.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,378.82	1,378.82	1,378.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share	23.38	30.84	35.81
LTM Dividend per Share	56.17	56.17	56.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share	23.38	30.84	35.81
(=) Adjusted Dividend	79.56	87.02	91.99
WACC / Discount Rate	8.39%	8.39%	8.39%
Growth Rate	-5.07%	-4.07%	-3.07%
Fair Value	$561.31	$670.21	$778.39
Upside / Downside	-53.03%	-43.92%	-34.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	137,117.67	131,538.15	126,185.68	121,051.01	116,125.28	111,399.97	114,741.97
Payout Ratio	56.49%	63.19%	69.89%	76.59%	83.30%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	77,453.60	83,118.39	88,193.92	92,718.76	96,729.33	100,259.98	106,136.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.39%	8.39%	8.39%
Growth Rate	-5.07%	-4.07%	-3.07%
Year 1 PV (M)	75,888.15	76,687.56	77,486.96
Year 2 PV (M)	73,517.77	75,074.80	76,648.15
Year 3 PV (M)	70,566.43	72,820.04	75,121.13
Year 4 PV (M)	67,214.90	70,092.13	73,060.76
Year 5 PV (M)	63,608.02	67,029.58	70,596.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,250,262.83	1,317,516.10	1,387,632.85
Equity Value (M)	1,601,058.11	1,679,220.21	1,760,546.66
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,378.82	1,378.82	1,378.82
Fair Value	$1,161.18	$1,217.87	$1,276.85
Upside / Downside	-2.83%	1.91%	6.85%

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PT Kino Indonesia Tbk (KINO.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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