Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

PJSC Kurgan Generation Company (KGKC.ME)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$96.45 - $195.03$134.59
Multi-Stage$151.61 - $166.30$158.82
Blended Fair Value$146.70
Current Price$40.00
Upside266.75%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.73%0.00%2.032.001.062.632.652.462.972.330.530.41
YoY Growth--1.34%89.72%-59.92%-0.78%8.12%-17.44%27.49%338.82%30.67%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.61%3.60%3.16%5.63%5.21%4.72%5.83%5.43%1.04%0.81%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)697.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)493.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)203.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)139.5587.2252.33
Cash Retained (M)203.96203.96203.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-139.55-87.22-52.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)64.42116.75151.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)122.45122.45122.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.530.951.24
LTM Dividend per Share4.034.034.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.530.951.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.564.995.27
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate1.49%2.49%3.49%
Fair Value$96.45$134.59$195.03
Upside / Downside141.12%236.46%387.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)697.74715.09732.88751.10769.78788.93812.59
Payout Ratio70.77%74.61%78.46%82.31%86.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)493.78533.56575.02618.21663.20710.03751.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate1.49%2.49%3.49%
Year 1 PV (M)497.12502.02506.92
Year 2 PV (M)499.15509.04519.02
Year 3 PV (M)499.99514.92530.14
Year 4 PV (M)499.74519.73540.31
Year 5 PV (M)498.49523.54549.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,071.0616,878.6017,718.28
Equity Value (M)18,565.5519,447.8420,364.25
Shares Outstanding (M)122.45122.45122.45
Fair Value$151.61$158.82$166.30
Upside / Downside279.03%297.05%315.76%

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