Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Karelia Tobacco Company Inc. (KARE.AT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: TobaccoSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$438.37 - $745.84$571.98
Multi-Stage$444.32 - $485.29$464.43
Blended Fair Value$518.20
Current Price$312.00
Upside66.09%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.48%3.86%12.4011.8011.009.409.409.499.199.208.519.29
YoY Growth--5.08%7.29%16.99%-0.01%-0.97%3.31%-0.06%8.05%-8.39%9.41%
Dividend Yield--4.00%3.47%3.50%3.33%3.03%3.89%3.51%3.22%3.22%3.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)95.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)58.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.0211.897.13
Cash Retained (M)58.4258.4258.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.02-11.89-7.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)39.4046.5351.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2.762.762.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share14.2716.8618.58
LTM Dividend per Share13.3013.3013.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share14.2716.8618.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend27.5730.1631.88
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate3.48%4.48%5.48%
Fair Value$438.37$571.98$745.84
Upside / Downside40.50%83.33%139.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)95.1299.39103.85108.50113.37118.45122.01
Payout Ratio38.58%48.87%59.15%69.43%79.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36.7048.5761.4375.3490.37106.61112.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate3.48%4.48%5.48%
Year 1 PV (M)43.7344.1644.58
Year 2 PV (M)49.8050.7751.75
Year 3 PV (M)55.0056.6158.25
Year 4 PV (M)59.4161.7464.14
Year 5 PV (M)63.1166.2169.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)955.281,002.331,051.23
Equity Value (M)1,226.341,281.831,339.39
Shares Outstanding (M)2.762.762.76
Fair Value$444.32$464.43$485.29
Upside / Downside42.41%48.86%55.54%

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