DDM Analysis: JSMR.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$13,849.80 - $42,351.05	$22,079.52
Multi-Stage	$14,825.69 - $16,252.06	$15,525.51
Blended Fair Value	$18,802.52
Current Price	$3,480.00
Upside	440.30%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	5.17%	-2.31%	58.56	76.48	0.02	0.00	15.21	45.52	60.63	78.09	40.41	67.68
YoY Growth	-	-	-23.44%	374,970.27%	0.00%	-100.00%	-66.60%	-24.92%	-22.36%	93.26%	-40.29%	-8.55%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.47%	1.35%	0.00%	0.00%	0.38%	1.79%	1.03%	1.71%	0.87%	1.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	3,963,713.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,863,914.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2,099,799.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	792,742.60	495,464.13	297,278.48
Cash Retained (M)	2,099,799.00	2,099,799.00	2,099,799.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-792,742.60	-495,464.13	-297,278.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,307,056.40	1,604,334.88	1,802,520.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	7,257.87	7,257.87	7,257.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share	180.09	221.05	248.35
LTM Dividend per Share	256.81	256.81	256.81
(+) Excess Retained per Share	180.09	221.05	248.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend	436.90	477.86	505.17
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	3.17%	4.17%	5.17%
Fair Value	$13,849.80	$22,079.52	$42,351.05
Upside / Downside	297.98%	534.47%	1,116.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	3,963,713.00	4,128,822.79	4,300,810.28	4,479,961.98	4,666,576.29	4,860,964.09	5,006,793.01
Payout Ratio	47.02%	55.62%	64.21%	72.81%	81.40%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,863,914.00	2,296,432.87	2,761,750.98	3,261,850.35	3,798,821.24	4,374,867.68	4,631,283.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	3.17%	4.17%	5.17%
Year 1 PV (M)	2,137,180.81	2,157,896.84	2,178,612.88
Year 2 PV (M)	2,391,990.97	2,438,587.62	2,485,633.76
Year 3 PV (M)	2,629,217.79	2,706,417.58	2,785,113.93
Year 4 PV (M)	2,849,698.40	2,961,805.63	3,077,188.51
Year 5 PV (M)	3,054,235.16	3,205,158.74	3,361,990.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)	94,540,606.18	99,212,285.24	104,066,844.79
Equity Value (M)	107,602,929.32	112,682,151.65	117,955,384.33
Shares Outstanding (M)	7,257.87	7,257.87	7,257.87
Fair Value	$14,825.69	$15,525.51	$16,252.06
Upside / Downside	326.03%	346.14%	367.01%

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Financial Statements

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PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk (JSMR.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener