DDM Analysis: JOE

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$15.60 - $23.63	$19.38
Multi-Stage	$31.52 - $34.71	$33.08
Blended Fair Value	$26.23
Current Price	$49.48
Upside	-46.99%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.52	0.44	0.40	0.32	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	18.25%	9.22%	24.69%	357.16%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.11%	0.77%	0.97%	0.55%	0.17%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	104.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	25.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)	79.46

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	20.92	13.08	7.85
Cash Retained (M)	79.46	79.46	79.46
(-) Cash Required (M)	-20.92	-13.08	-7.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)	58.54	66.38	71.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	58.13	58.13	58.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.01	1.14	1.23
LTM Dividend per Share	0.43	0.43	0.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.01	1.14	1.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.44	1.57	1.66
WACC / Discount Rate	7.05%	7.05%	7.05%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$15.60	$19.38	$23.63
Upside / Downside	-68.48%	-60.84%	-52.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	104.61	103.57	102.53	101.50	100.49	99.48	102.47
Payout Ratio	24.05%	37.24%	50.43%	63.62%	76.81%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	25.15	38.56	51.70	64.58	77.19	89.54	94.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.05%	7.05%	7.05%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	35.66	36.03	36.39
Year 2 PV (M)	44.21	45.12	46.04
Year 3 PV (M)	51.07	52.65	54.26
Year 4 PV (M)	56.44	58.78	61.20
Year 5 PV (M)	60.55	63.70	66.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,584.42	1,666.93	1,752.84
Equity Value (M)	1,832.36	1,923.21	2,017.70
Shares Outstanding (M)	58.13	58.13	58.13
Fair Value	$31.52	$33.08	$34.71
Upside / Downside	-36.30%	-33.14%	-29.85%

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The St. Joe Company (JOE)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener