DDM Analysis: JLG.AX

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$51.31 - $60.45	$56.65
Multi-Stage	$37.23 - $40.85	$39.00
Blended Fair Value	$47.83
Current Price	$3.17
Upside	1,408.77%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	13.58%	0.00%	0.07	0.09	0.07	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-20.90%	30.22%	47.11%	35.43%	-7.87%	152.95%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.27%	1.59%	1.31%	0.83%	0.69%	1.62%	1.03%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	85.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	45.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)	39.45

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	17.02	10.64	6.38
Cash Retained (M)	39.45	39.45	39.45
(-) Cash Required (M)	-17.02	-10.64	-6.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)	22.42	28.81	33.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	279.99	279.99	279.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.10	0.12
LTM Dividend per Share	0.16	0.16	0.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.10	0.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.24	0.27	0.28
WACC / Discount Rate	1.06%	1.06%	1.06%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$51.31	$56.65	$60.45
Upside / Downside	1,518.58%	1,687.10%	1,806.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	85.11	90.64	96.53	102.81	109.49	116.61	120.10
Payout Ratio	53.65%	60.92%	68.19%	75.46%	82.73%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	45.66	55.22	65.83	77.58	90.58	104.94	111.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	1.06%	1.06%	1.06%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	54.13	54.64	55.15
Year 2 PV (M)	63.25	64.46	65.67
Year 3 PV (M)	73.07	75.17	77.31
Year 4 PV (M)	83.63	86.85	90.16
Year 5 PV (M)	94.98	99.57	104.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)	10,054.73	10,540.38	11,044.61
Equity Value (M)	10,423.79	10,921.06	11,437.23
Shares Outstanding (M)	279.99	279.99	279.99
Fair Value	$37.23	$39.00	$40.85
Upside / Downside	1,074.40%	1,130.43%	1,188.58%

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Johns Lyng Group Limited (JLG.AX)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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