Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$356.42 - $649.83$608.98
Multi-Stage$103.48 - $113.24$108.27
Blended Fair Value$358.63
Current Price$64.85
Upside453.01%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.15%12.53%1.361.251.261.000.720.670.740.530.410.42
YoY Growth--8.75%-0.54%25.72%38.44%7.55%-9.61%41.01%28.60%-1.35%-0.56%
Dividend Yield--2.06%2.99%3.33%2.95%2.52%3.57%4.10%2.59%1.76%2.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)727.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)362.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)365.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)145.5290.9554.57
Cash Retained (M)365.44365.44365.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-145.52-90.95-54.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)219.92274.49310.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)222.68222.68222.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.991.231.40
LTM Dividend per Share1.631.631.63
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.991.231.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.612.863.02
WACC / Discount Rate6.27%6.27%6.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$356.42$608.98$649.83
Upside / Downside449.61%839.07%902.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)727.60774.90825.27878.91936.04996.881,026.79
Payout Ratio49.77%57.82%65.86%73.91%81.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)362.16448.04543.56649.60767.13897.19949.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.27%6.27%6.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)417.63421.59425.55
Year 2 PV (M)472.28481.28490.36
Year 3 PV (M)526.11541.21556.60
Year 4 PV (M)579.13601.40624.31
Year 5 PV (M)631.35661.84693.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,415.5721,401.6522,425.47
Equity Value (M)23,042.0824,108.9825,215.79
Shares Outstanding (M)222.68222.68222.68
Fair Value$103.48$108.27$113.24
Upside / Downside59.56%66.95%74.62%

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