Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

IDP Education Limited (IEL.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$107.31 - $126.43$118.49
Multi-Stage$43.04 - $47.15$45.06
Blended Fair Value$81.77
Current Price$3.67
Upside2,128.10%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS21.52%2.63%0.180.450.340.130.230.070.170.130.110.17
YoY Growth---59.62%30.43%155.56%-41.52%236.69%-59.46%34.33%12.00%-34.82%23.08%
Dividend Yield--4.94%3.02%1.56%0.57%0.94%0.44%0.93%1.20%2.20%4.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)177.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)175.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)1.91
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35.4522.1613.29
Cash Retained (M)1.911.911.91
(-) Cash Required (M)-35.45-22.16-13.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)-33.55-20.25-11.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)278.82278.82278.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.12-0.07-0.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.630.630.63
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.12-0.07-0.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.510.560.59
WACC / Discount Rate4.58%4.58%4.58%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$107.31$118.49$126.43
Upside / Downside2,824.10%3,128.55%3,345.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)177.26188.78201.05214.12228.04242.86250.14
Payout Ratio98.92%97.14%95.35%93.57%91.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)175.35183.38191.71200.35209.30218.57231.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.58%4.58%4.58%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)173.70175.34176.99
Year 2 PV (M)172.00175.28178.58
Year 3 PV (M)170.26175.15180.13
Year 4 PV (M)168.48174.96181.62
Year 5 PV (M)166.65174.70183.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,148.1711,686.6312,245.70
Equity Value (M)11,999.2612,562.0613,146.09
Shares Outstanding (M)278.82278.82278.82
Fair Value$43.04$45.06$47.15
Upside / Downside1,072.66%1,127.66%1,184.73%

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