DDM Analysis: HXL

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$4.89 - $6.79	$5.84
Multi-Stage	$9.00 - $9.85	$9.42
Blended Fair Value	$7.63
Current Price	$62.70
Upside	-87.83%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-1.88%	0.00%	0.61	0.52	0.42	0.00	0.18	0.67	0.60	0.53	0.49	0.47
YoY Growth	-	-	16.82%	25.22%	0.00%	-100.00%	-73.80%	11.98%	13.62%	7.04%	3.92%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.11%	0.72%	0.61%	0.00%	0.31%	1.80%	0.85%	0.81%	0.90%	1.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	68.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	53.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)	15.70

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	13.76	8.60	5.16
Cash Retained (M)	15.70	15.70	15.70
(-) Cash Required (M)	-13.76	-8.60	-5.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1.94	7.10	10.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	81.13	81.13	81.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.09	0.13
LTM Dividend per Share	0.65	0.65	0.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.09	0.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.68	0.74	0.78
WACC / Discount Rate	9.46%	9.46%	9.46%
Growth Rate	-3.88%	-2.88%	-1.88%
Fair Value	$4.89	$5.84	$6.79
Upside / Downside	-92.20%	-90.68%	-89.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	68.80	66.82	64.90	63.03	61.22	59.46	61.24
Payout Ratio	77.18%	79.74%	82.31%	84.87%	87.44%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	53.10	53.29	53.42	53.50	53.53	53.51	56.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.46%	9.46%	9.46%
Growth Rate	-3.88%	-2.88%	-1.88%
Year 1 PV (M)	48.18	48.68	49.18
Year 2 PV (M)	43.67	44.59	45.51
Year 3 PV (M)	39.55	40.79	42.07
Year 4 PV (M)	35.78	37.29	38.85
Year 5 PV (M)	32.34	34.06	35.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)	530.28	558.44	587.79
Equity Value (M)	729.80	763.85	799.25
Shares Outstanding (M)	81.13	81.13	81.13
Fair Value	$9.00	$9.42	$9.85
Upside / Downside	-85.65%	-84.98%	-84.29%

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Hexcel Corporation (HXL)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener