DDM Analysis: HWX.TO

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$13.68 - $29.18	$19.46
Multi-Stage	$10.50 - $11.44	$10.96
Blended Fair Value	$15.21
Current Price	$6.73
Upside	125.96%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.40	0.39	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	0.81%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	6.16%	5.09%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	172.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	99.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)	72.95

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	34.56	21.60	12.96
Cash Retained (M)	72.95	72.95	72.95
(-) Cash Required (M)	-34.56	-21.60	-12.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)	38.39	51.35	59.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	238.72	238.72	238.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.16	0.22	0.25
LTM Dividend per Share	0.42	0.42	0.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.16	0.22	0.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.58	0.63	0.67
WACC / Discount Rate	9.97%	9.97%	9.97%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$13.68	$19.46	$29.18
Upside / Downside	103.22%	189.09%	333.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	172.80	184.04	196.00	208.74	222.31	236.76	243.86
Payout Ratio	57.78%	64.23%	70.67%	77.11%	83.56%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	99.85	118.20	138.51	160.97	185.75	213.08	225.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.97%	9.97%	9.97%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	106.48	107.49	108.50
Year 2 PV (M)	112.40	114.54	116.70
Year 3 PV (M)	117.67	121.04	124.49
Year 4 PV (M)	122.32	127.02	131.86
Year 5 PV (M)	126.40	132.50	138.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,920.55	2,013.31	2,109.63
Equity Value (M)	2,505.81	2,615.91	2,730.01
Shares Outstanding (M)	238.72	238.72	238.72
Fair Value	$10.50	$10.96	$11.44
Upside / Downside	55.97%	62.82%	69.93%

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Headwater Exploration Inc. (HWX.TO)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener