Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Humanica Public Company Limited (HUMAN.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.45 - $25.30$14.49
Multi-Stage$6.83 - $7.44$7.13
Blended Fair Value$10.81
Current Price$7.80
Upside38.61%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.54%0.00%0.260.200.140.110.090.090.060.230.000.00
YoY Growth--29.99%44.52%26.10%16.67%0.00%71.43%-76.49%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.26%1.73%1.19%0.87%0.90%1.55%0.61%2.13%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)345.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)258.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)87.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)69.1643.2225.93
Cash Retained (M)87.2987.2987.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-69.16-43.22-25.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)18.1344.0661.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)864.58864.58864.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.050.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.050.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate9.07%9.07%9.07%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9.45$14.49$25.30
Upside / Downside21.17%85.81%224.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)345.80368.27392.21417.70444.85473.77487.98
Payout Ratio74.76%77.81%80.85%83.90%86.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)258.51286.54317.12350.46386.81426.39451.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.07%9.07%9.07%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)260.24262.70265.17
Year 2 PV (M)261.58266.56271.59
Year 3 PV (M)262.55270.09277.77
Year 4 PV (M)263.18273.30283.71
Year 5 PV (M)263.49276.22289.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,594.034,815.925,046.31
Equity Value (M)5,905.076,164.806,433.98
Shares Outstanding (M)864.58864.58864.58
Fair Value$6.83$7.13$7.44
Upside / Downside-12.44%-8.59%-4.59%

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