DDM Analysis: HTH

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$18.27 - $26.51	$22.27
Multi-Stage	$30.59 - $33.61	$32.07
Blended Fair Value	$27.17
Current Price	$33.42
Upside	-18.69%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	8.36%	0.00%	0.69	0.65	0.67	0.61	0.51	0.46	0.42	0.36	0.09	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	6.38%	-3.16%	10.22%	19.84%	9.78%	10.97%	15.38%	298.90%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.28%	2.09%	2.27%	2.08%	1.49%	3.07%	2.24%	1.54%	0.33%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	159.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	45.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)	114.12

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	31.91	19.94	11.96
Cash Retained (M)	114.12	114.12	114.12
(-) Cash Required (M)	-31.91	-19.94	-11.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)	82.21	94.18	102.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	63.87	63.87	63.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.29	1.47	1.60
LTM Dividend per Share	0.71	0.71	0.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.29	1.47	1.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.00	2.19	2.31
WACC / Discount Rate	8.72%	8.72%	8.72%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$18.27	$22.27	$26.51
Upside / Downside	-45.32%	-33.36%	-20.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	159.53	157.93	156.35	154.79	153.24	151.71	156.26
Payout Ratio	28.46%	40.77%	53.08%	65.39%	77.69%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	45.41	64.39	82.99	101.21	119.06	136.54	144.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.72%	8.72%	8.72%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	58.63	59.23	59.83
Year 2 PV (M)	68.80	70.22	71.64
Year 3 PV (M)	76.40	78.77	81.18
Year 4 PV (M)	81.84	85.23	88.72
Year 5 PV (M)	85.46	89.91	94.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,582.72	1,665.14	1,750.95
Equity Value (M)	1,953.85	2,048.48	2,146.86
Shares Outstanding (M)	63.87	63.87	63.87
Fair Value	$30.59	$32.07	$33.61
Upside / Downside	-8.46%	-4.03%	0.58%

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Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener