Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

HMC Capital Limited (HMC.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29.49 - $67.43$42.98
Multi-Stage$20.81 - $22.75$21.76
Blended Fair Value$32.37
Current Price$5.10
Upside534.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019
DPS84.63%0.00%0.510.110.100.090.100.020.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--357.18%15.91%3.53%-5.09%312.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--9.94%1.58%1.89%2.05%1.79%0.86%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)543.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)64.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)479.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)108.7067.9440.76
Cash Retained (M)479.02479.02479.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-108.70-67.94-40.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)370.31411.08438.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)377.00377.00377.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.981.091.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.981.091.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.151.261.33
WACC / Discount Rate9.63%9.63%9.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$29.49$42.98$67.43
Upside / Downside478.23%742.66%1,222.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)543.52578.85616.47656.54699.22744.67767.01
Payout Ratio11.87%27.49%43.12%58.75%74.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)64.50159.15265.82385.70520.03670.20709.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.63%9.63%9.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)143.81145.17146.53
Year 2 PV (M)217.06221.19225.36
Year 3 PV (M)284.59292.76301.08
Year 4 PV (M)346.72360.06373.77
Year 5 PV (M)403.78423.29443.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,450.966,762.557,086.06
Equity Value (M)7,846.928,205.018,576.34
Shares Outstanding (M)377.00377.00377.00
Fair Value$20.81$21.76$22.75
Upside / Downside308.12%326.75%346.06%

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