Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hamilton Lane Incorporated (HLNE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$125.43 - $433.11$206.52
Multi-Stage$84.68 - $92.33$88.44
Blended Fair Value$147.48
Current Price$134.79
Upside9.41%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS9.40%9.79%2.342.142.661.901.451.501.360.911.571.33
YoY Growth--9.63%-19.56%39.56%31.46%-3.13%10.26%49.23%-42.26%18.64%44.01%
Dividend Yield--1.65%1.74%3.32%2.84%1.59%2.22%2.36%1.89%7.16%7.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)230.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)170.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)59.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)46.1228.8217.29
Cash Retained (M)59.7559.7559.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-46.12-28.82-17.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.6430.9342.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)51.1151.1151.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.610.83
LTM Dividend per Share3.343.343.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.610.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.613.954.17
WACC / Discount Rate8.54%8.54%8.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$125.43$206.52$433.11
Upside / Downside-6.94%53.21%221.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)230.58245.57261.53278.53296.63315.91325.39
Payout Ratio74.09%77.27%80.45%83.63%86.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)170.83189.75210.40232.94257.53284.32300.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.54%8.54%8.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)173.18174.82176.47
Year 2 PV (M)175.27178.61181.98
Year 3 PV (M)177.11182.19187.37
Year 4 PV (M)178.71185.58192.65
Year 5 PV (M)180.08188.77197.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,443.593,609.923,782.61
Equity Value (M)4,327.944,519.904,718.89
Shares Outstanding (M)51.1151.1151.11
Fair Value$84.68$88.44$92.33
Upside / Downside-37.17%-34.39%-31.50%

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