Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

HCI Group, Inc. (HCI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$536.96 - $3,126.72$986.20
Multi-Stage$312.16 - $341.63$326.63
Blended Fair Value$656.41
Current Price$191.93
Upside242.01%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.99%3.00%1.301.071.191.100.991.020.891.090.970.97
YoY Growth--20.99%-9.94%8.30%10.80%-2.44%14.97%-18.61%11.80%0.08%0.59%
Dividend Yield--0.87%0.93%2.22%1.61%1.29%2.53%2.09%2.85%2.13%2.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)203.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)185.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.7925.4915.30
Cash Retained (M)185.58185.58185.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.79-25.49-15.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)144.80160.09170.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12.7812.7812.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share11.3312.5213.32
LTM Dividend per Share1.441.441.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share11.3312.5213.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend12.7613.9614.76
WACC / Discount Rate8.01%8.01%8.01%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$536.96$986.20$3,126.72
Upside / Downside179.77%413.83%1,529.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)203.94217.19231.31246.34262.36279.41287.79
Payout Ratio9.00%25.20%41.40%57.60%73.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18.3554.7395.76141.89193.62251.47266.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.01%8.01%8.01%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)50.2050.6751.15
Year 2 PV (M)80.5582.0983.64
Year 3 PV (M)109.47112.62115.82
Year 4 PV (M)137.01142.28147.70
Year 5 PV (M)163.20171.09179.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,450.353,617.003,790.04
Equity Value (M)3,990.784,175.744,367.60
Shares Outstanding (M)12.7812.7812.78
Fair Value$312.16$326.63$341.63
Upside / Downside62.64%70.18%78.00%

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