DDM Analysis: HARN.BK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.83 - $1.16	$0.99
Multi-Stage	$1.49 - $1.63	$1.56
Blended Fair Value	$1.28
Current Price	$1.99
Upside	-35.88%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-1.30%	-1.21%	0.15	0.13	0.10	0.13	0.18	0.16	0.14	0.09	0.06	0.09
YoY Growth	-	-	15.30%	30.00%	-23.08%	-27.78%	12.50%	14.29%	55.56%	50.30%	-33.33%	-46.97%
Dividend Yield	-	-	7.07%	5.91%	4.72%	5.56%	7.32%	9.04%	5.98%	2.96%	2.30%	3.59%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	80.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	70.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)	10.49

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	16.13	10.08	6.05
Cash Retained (M)	10.49	10.49	10.49
(-) Cash Required (M)	-16.13	-10.08	-6.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-5.64	0.41	4.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	584.50	584.50	584.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.01	0.00	0.01
LTM Dividend per Share	0.12	0.12	0.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.01	0.00	0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.11	0.12	0.13
WACC / Discount Rate	9.60%	9.60%	9.60%
Growth Rate	-3.30%	-2.30%	-1.30%
Fair Value	$0.83	$0.99	$1.16
Upside / Downside	-58.41%	-50.18%	-41.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	80.63	78.78	76.97	75.20	73.47	71.79	73.94
Payout Ratio	86.99%	87.59%	88.19%	88.80%	89.40%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	70.14	69.00	67.88	66.78	65.68	64.61	68.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.60%	9.60%	9.60%
Growth Rate	-3.30%	-2.30%	-1.30%
Year 1 PV (M)	62.32	62.96	63.60
Year 2 PV (M)	55.36	56.51	57.68
Year 3 PV (M)	49.18	50.72	52.30
Year 4 PV (M)	43.69	45.53	47.42
Year 5 PV (M)	38.81	40.86	42.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)	622.66	655.53	689.77
Equity Value (M)	872.02	912.11	953.76
Shares Outstanding (M)	584.50	584.50	584.50
Fair Value	$1.49	$1.56	$1.63
Upside / Downside	-25.03%	-21.58%	-18.00%

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Harn Engineering Solutions Public Company Limited (HARN.BK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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