Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Gielda Papierów Wartosciowych w Warszawie S.A. (GPW.WA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Data & Stock ExchangesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$47.00 - $74.37$59.49
Multi-Stage$58.73 - $64.11$61.37
Blended Fair Value$60.43
Current Price$51.45
Upside17.46%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.16%9.55%3.002.702.742.502.403.182.202.152.362.40
YoY Growth--11.08%-1.45%9.33%4.46%-24.53%44.52%2.31%-8.92%-1.61%99.17%
Dividend Yield--6.61%6.39%7.62%6.12%5.23%9.21%5.31%5.20%5.31%6.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)189.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)125.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)64.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)38.0023.7514.25
Cash Retained (M)64.0764.0764.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-38.00-23.75-14.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)26.0740.3249.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)42.0242.0242.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.620.961.19
LTM Dividend per Share3.003.003.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.620.961.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.623.964.18
WACC / Discount Rate9.73%9.73%9.73%
Growth Rate1.88%2.88%3.88%
Fair Value$47.00$59.49$74.37
Upside / Downside-8.66%15.63%44.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)189.99195.47201.10206.90212.87219.01225.58
Payout Ratio66.28%71.02%75.77%80.51%85.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)125.92138.82152.37166.58181.48197.11208.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.73%9.73%9.73%
Growth Rate1.88%2.88%3.88%
Year 1 PV (M)125.29126.52127.75
Year 2 PV (M)124.10126.55129.02
Year 3 PV (M)122.45126.09129.80
Year 4 PV (M)120.40125.20130.14
Year 5 PV (M)118.02123.92130.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,857.391,950.352,046.99
Equity Value (M)2,467.652,578.632,693.77
Shares Outstanding (M)42.0242.0242.02
Fair Value$58.73$61.37$64.11
Upside / Downside14.15%19.29%24.61%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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