DDM Analysis: GPK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$55.26 - $286.38	$99.42
Multi-Stage	$33.63 - $36.78	$35.17
Blended Fair Value	$67.30
Current Price	$19.57
Upside	243.88%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	1.60%	0.00%	0.40	0.41	0.31	0.31	0.34	0.37	0.37	0.31	0.21	0.16
YoY Growth	-	-	-0.81%	33.70%	0.00%	-10.51%	-8.78%	1.53%	18.84%	45.03%	30.63%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.56%	1.42%	1.20%	1.52%	1.88%	3.07%	2.88%	2.02%	1.66%	1.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	511.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	127.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	384.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	102.20	63.88	38.33
Cash Retained (M)	384.00	384.00	384.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-102.20	-63.88	-38.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)	281.80	320.13	345.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	301.28	301.28	301.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.94	1.06	1.15
LTM Dividend per Share	0.42	0.42	0.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.94	1.06	1.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.36	1.48	1.57
WACC / Discount Rate	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%
Growth Rate	5.41%	6.41%	7.41%
Fair Value	$55.26	$99.42	$286.38
Upside / Downside	182.36%	408.03%	1,363.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	511.00	543.76	578.62	615.71	655.19	697.19	718.10
Payout Ratio	24.85%	37.88%	50.91%	63.94%	76.97%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	127.00	205.99	294.59	393.69	504.30	627.47	664.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%
Growth Rate	5.41%	6.41%	7.41%
Year 1 PV (M)	188.94	190.73	192.53
Year 2 PV (M)	247.84	252.56	257.33
Year 3 PV (M)	303.81	312.53	321.43
Year 4 PV (M)	356.95	370.69	384.82
Year 5 PV (M)	407.37	427.06	447.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)	8,626.11	9,043.11	9,476.09
Equity Value (M)	10,131.00	10,596.68	11,079.70
Shares Outstanding (M)	301.28	301.28	301.28
Fair Value	$33.63	$35.17	$36.78
Upside / Downside	71.83%	79.73%	87.92%

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Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener