Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Internet Content & InformationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$184.69 - $382.99$260.08
Multi-Stage$134.13 - $146.58$140.24
Blended Fair Value$200.16
Current Price$243.10
Upside-17.66%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.600.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.39%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)124,251.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9,956.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)114,295.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24,850.2015,531.389,318.83
Cash Retained (M)114,295.00114,295.00114,295.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-24,850.20-15,531.38-9,318.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)89,444.8098,763.63104,976.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12,260.0012,260.0012,260.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share7.308.068.56
LTM Dividend per Share0.810.810.81
(+) Excess Retained per Share7.308.068.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.118.879.37
WACC / Discount Rate10.13%10.13%10.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$184.69$260.08$382.99
Upside / Downside-24.03%6.98%57.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)124,251.00132,327.32140,928.59150,088.95159,844.73170,234.64175,341.68
Payout Ratio8.01%24.41%40.81%57.21%73.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9,956.0032,301.4357,509.7085,858.57117,649.82153,211.17162,191.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.13%10.13%10.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)29,054.5329,329.9329,605.33
Year 2 PV (M)46,529.1847,415.4348,310.04
Year 3 PV (M)62,482.7464,276.4066,104.05
Year 4 PV (M)77,012.2579,973.9383,020.21
Year 5 PV (M)90,209.2794,566.4199,090.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,339,120.751,403,800.791,470,956.28
Equity Value (M)1,644,408.721,719,362.871,797,086.22
Shares Outstanding (M)12,260.0012,260.0012,260.00
Fair Value$134.13$140.24$146.58
Upside / Downside-44.83%-42.31%-39.70%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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