Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Gjensidige Forsikring ASA (GJF.OL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$156.65 - $263.40$203.41
Multi-Stage$194.23 - $212.05$202.97
Blended Fair Value$203.19
Current Price$255.40
Upside-20.44%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.27%-6.26%8.548.067.5213.4711.966.936.936.766.175.76
YoY Growth--6.06%7.15%-44.20%12.65%72.54%0.00%2.60%9.44%7.19%-64.67%
Dividend Yield--3.53%5.15%4.39%6.16%5.96%3.89%4.65%4.62%4.72%4.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,559.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,072.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,487.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,311.98819.99491.99
Cash Retained (M)1,487.201,487.201,487.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,311.98-819.99-491.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)175.22667.21995.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)512.05512.05512.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.341.301.94
LTM Dividend per Share9.919.919.91
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.341.301.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.2511.2111.85
WACC / Discount Rate8.96%8.96%8.96%
Growth Rate2.27%3.27%4.27%
Fair Value$156.65$203.41$263.40
Upside / Downside-38.67%-20.36%3.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,559.906,774.206,995.517,224.057,460.057,703.767,934.87
Payout Ratio77.33%79.86%82.40%84.93%87.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,072.705,410.095,764.126,135.506,524.996,933.387,339.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.96%8.96%8.96%
Growth Rate2.27%3.27%4.27%
Year 1 PV (M)4,917.234,965.315,013.39
Year 2 PV (M)4,761.724,855.294,949.78
Year 3 PV (M)4,606.764,743.234,882.36
Year 4 PV (M)4,452.894,629.624,811.57
Year 5 PV (M)4,300.534,514.954,737.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)76,413.2980,223.0584,183.27
Equity Value (M)99,452.42103,931.45108,578.20
Shares Outstanding (M)512.05512.05512.05
Fair Value$194.23$202.97$212.05
Upside / Downside-23.95%-20.53%-16.97%

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