DDM Analysis: GES

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$11.21 - $16.40	$13.71
Multi-Stage	$15.46 - $16.89	$16.16
Blended Fair Value	$14.94
Current Price	$16.98
Upside	-12.04%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	8.79%	-1.80%	1.15	1.13	0.93	0.66	0.28	0.76	1.32	1.37	1.37	1.38
YoY Growth	-	-	2.26%	21.16%	41.03%	136.28%	-63.09%	-42.75%	-3.24%	-0.58%	-0.46%	-0.19%
Dividend Yield	-	-	10.15%	4.22%	4.94%	2.94%	1.03%	9.33%	6.48%	5.87%	12.32%	7.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	80.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	49.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)	30.93

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	16.07	10.05	6.03
Cash Retained (M)	30.93	30.93	30.93
(-) Cash Required (M)	-16.07	-10.05	-6.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)	14.85	20.88	24.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	55.66	55.66	55.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.27	0.38	0.45
LTM Dividend per Share	0.89	0.89	0.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.27	0.38	0.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.15	1.26	1.34
WACC / Discount Rate	10.49%	10.49%	10.49%
Growth Rate	0.17%	1.17%	2.17%
Fair Value	$11.21	$13.71	$16.40
Upside / Downside	-33.98%	-19.25%	-3.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	80.36	81.30	82.24	83.20	84.17	85.15	87.71
Payout Ratio	61.52%	67.21%	72.91%	78.61%	84.30%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	49.44	54.64	59.97	65.40	70.96	76.64	81.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.49%	10.49%	10.49%
Growth Rate	0.17%	1.17%	2.17%
Year 1 PV (M)	48.97	49.46	49.95
Year 2 PV (M)	48.16	49.12	50.10
Year 3 PV (M)	47.07	48.49	49.95
Year 4 PV (M)	45.77	47.62	49.53
Year 5 PV (M)	44.29	46.55	48.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)	626.41	658.31	691.49
Equity Value (M)	860.66	899.55	939.91
Shares Outstanding (M)	55.66	55.66	55.66
Fair Value	$15.46	$16.16	$16.89
Upside / Downside	-8.94%	-4.83%	-0.56%

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Guess', Inc. (GES)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener