DDM Analysis: GCBC

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$63.31 - $306.78	$112.45
Multi-Stage	$37.84 - $41.40	$39.59
Blended Fair Value	$76.02
Current Price	$22.60
Upside	236.37%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	14.86%	9.55%	0.26	0.19	0.13	0.15	0.14	0.13	0.12	0.09	0.11	0.11
YoY Growth	-	-	38.12%	47.88%	-16.82%	8.40%	8.58%	9.87%	33.49%	-20.52%	3.56%	3.11%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.16%	0.62%	0.54%	0.54%	0.79%	1.21%	0.87%	0.55%	0.75%	1.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	33.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	4.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)	29.27

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	6.75	4.22	2.53
Cash Retained (M)	29.27	29.27	29.27
(-) Cash Required (M)	-6.75	-4.22	-2.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)	22.52	25.05	26.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	17.03	17.03	17.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.32	1.47	1.57
LTM Dividend per Share	0.26	0.26	0.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.32	1.47	1.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.59	1.73	1.83
WACC / Discount Rate	8.14%	8.14%	8.14%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$63.31	$112.45	$306.78
Upside / Downside	180.11%	397.58%	1,257.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	33.75	35.94	38.28	40.76	43.41	46.24	47.62
Payout Ratio	13.26%	28.61%	43.96%	59.30%	74.65%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	4.48	10.28	16.83	24.18	32.41	41.61	44.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.14%	8.14%	8.14%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	9.42	9.51	9.60
Year 2 PV (M)	14.12	14.39	14.66
Year 3 PV (M)	18.58	19.12	19.66
Year 4 PV (M)	22.82	23.70	24.60
Year 5 PV (M)	26.84	28.13	29.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)	552.49	579.18	606.89
Equity Value (M)	644.27	674.02	704.88
Shares Outstanding (M)	17.03	17.03	17.03
Fair Value	$37.84	$39.59	$41.40
Upside / Downside	67.43%	75.16%	83.18%

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Ticker

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Sector

Greene County Bancorp, Inc. (GCBC)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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