Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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GATX Corporation (GATX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Rental & Leasing ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$243.38 - $907.47$408.46
Multi-Stage$378.50 - $416.14$396.96
Blended Fair Value$402.71
Current Price$174.80
Upside130.38%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.12%3.18%2.362.252.132.071.981.931.931.901.881.90
YoY Growth--5.21%5.22%3.10%4.65%2.45%0.00%1.61%1.19%-1.17%10.00%
Dividend Yield--1.52%1.71%1.94%1.68%2.13%3.09%2.50%2.77%3.08%4.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)312.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)88.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)224.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)62.5639.1023.46
Cash Retained (M)224.10224.10224.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-62.56-39.10-23.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)161.54185.00200.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)35.9035.9035.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.505.155.59
LTM Dividend per Share2.472.472.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.505.155.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.977.628.06
WACC / Discount Rate5.04%5.04%5.04%
Growth Rate2.12%3.12%4.12%
Fair Value$243.38$408.46$907.47
Upside / Downside39.23%133.67%419.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)312.80322.56332.62343.00353.70364.73375.67
Payout Ratio28.36%40.69%53.01%65.34%77.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)88.70131.23176.34224.12274.72328.26347.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.04%5.04%5.04%
Growth Rate2.12%3.12%4.12%
Year 1 PV (M)123.72124.93126.14
Year 2 PV (M)156.72159.81162.92
Year 3 PV (M)187.79193.36199.04
Year 4 PV (M)217.01225.63234.51
Year 5 PV (M)244.45256.66269.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,658.3413,290.3813,947.42
Equity Value (M)13,588.0414,250.7714,939.38
Shares Outstanding (M)35.9035.9035.90
Fair Value$378.50$396.96$416.14
Upside / Downside116.53%127.09%138.07%

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