DDM Analysis: GALP.LS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$20.98 - $40.65	$28.81
Multi-Stage	$26.28 - $28.79	$27.51
Blended Fair Value	$28.16
Current Price	$16.10
Upside	74.90%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-5.57%	4.31%	0.56	0.57	0.56	0.67	0.53	0.75	0.69	0.66	0.52	0.43
YoY Growth	-	-	-0.71%	0.48%	-15.66%	25.13%	-28.67%	8.98%	4.28%	26.87%	21.62%	15.77%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.47%	3.60%	5.39%	5.80%	5.39%	7.20%	4.75%	4.30%	3.65%	3.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	975.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	480.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	495.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	195.00	121.88	73.13
Cash Retained (M)	495.00	495.00	495.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-195.00	-121.88	-73.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)	300.00	373.13	421.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	745.02	745.02	745.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.40	0.50	0.57
LTM Dividend per Share	0.64	0.64	0.64
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.40	0.50	0.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.05	1.15	1.21
WACC / Discount Rate	7.41%	7.41%	7.41%
Growth Rate	2.31%	3.31%	4.31%
Fair Value	$20.98	$28.81	$40.65
Upside / Downside	30.28%	78.93%	152.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	975.00	1,007.24	1,040.54	1,074.94	1,110.48	1,147.20	1,181.62
Payout Ratio	49.23%	57.38%	65.54%	73.69%	81.85%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	480.00	578.00	681.95	792.15	908.89	1,032.48	1,093.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.41%	7.41%	7.41%
Growth Rate	2.31%	3.31%	4.31%
Year 1 PV (M)	532.90	538.11	543.32
Year 2 PV (M)	579.69	591.07	602.57
Year 3 PV (M)	620.82	639.20	657.95
Year 4 PV (M)	656.73	682.79	709.61
Year 5 PV (M)	687.83	722.11	757.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)	16,500.40	17,322.74	18,177.55
Equity Value (M)	19,578.37	20,496.02	21,448.74
Shares Outstanding (M)	745.02	745.02	745.02
Fair Value	$26.28	$27.51	$28.79
Upside / Downside	63.22%	70.87%	78.82%

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Financial Statements

Fundamentals

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Miscellaneous

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Ticker

Industry

Sector

Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. (GALP.LS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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