Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Fortescue Ltd (FMG.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$84.90 - $320.08$142.85
Multi-Stage$70.28 - $76.82$73.49
Blended Fair Value$108.17
Current Price$10.05
Upside976.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS8.17%23.59%0.931.341.272.171.840.620.720.280.250.04
YoY Growth---31.14%5.56%-41.45%17.86%195.27%-13.29%154.00%15.76%562.28%-66.76%
Dividend Yield--9.21%9.27%8.63%17.97%10.54%6.54%11.31%8.73%6.11%1.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,122.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,991.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,130.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,824.511,140.32684.19
Cash Retained (M)2,130.662,130.662,130.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,824.51-1,140.32-684.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)306.14990.341,446.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,080.773,080.773,080.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.320.47
LTM Dividend per Share2.272.272.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.320.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.372.592.74
WACC / Discount Rate7.18%7.18%7.18%
Growth Rate4.28%5.28%6.28%
Fair Value$84.90$142.85$320.08
Upside / Downside744.80%1,321.42%3,084.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,122.579,603.8110,110.4310,643.7911,205.2811,796.3812,150.28
Payout Ratio76.64%79.32%81.99%84.66%87.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,991.917,617.298,289.199,010.789,785.4410,616.7511,239.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.18%7.18%7.18%
Growth Rate4.28%5.28%6.28%
Year 1 PV (M)7,039.197,106.697,174.20
Year 2 PV (M)7,078.747,215.177,352.89
Year 3 PV (M)7,110.977,317.527,528.03
Year 4 PV (M)7,136.237,413.947,699.67
Year 5 PV (M)7,154.887,504.607,867.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)180,998.15189,845.08199,034.62
Equity Value (M)216,518.16226,402.99236,657.27
Shares Outstanding (M)3,080.773,080.773,080.77
Fair Value$70.28$73.49$76.82
Upside / Downside599.31%631.24%664.35%

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