DDM Analysis: EXE

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$10.69 - $13.83	$12.36
Multi-Stage	$28.13 - $31.08	$29.58
Blended Fair Value	$20.97
Current Price	$106.24
Upside	-80.27%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	5.19%	1.64	2.06	5.12	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.39	0.77	0.00	0.50
YoY Growth	-	-	-20.33%	-59.82%	918.49%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-49.73%	0.00%	-100.00%	-49.57%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.47%	2.29%	6.73%	0.58%	0.00%	0.00%	0.91%	1.81%	0.00%	1.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	867.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	762.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	105.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	173.40	108.38	65.03
Cash Retained (M)	105.00	105.00	105.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-173.40	-108.38	-65.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-68.40	-3.38	39.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	236.77	236.77	236.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.29	-0.01	0.17
LTM Dividend per Share	3.22	3.22	3.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.29	-0.01	0.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.93	3.20	3.39
WACC / Discount Rate	8.25%	8.25%	8.25%
Growth Rate	-15.04%	-14.04%	-13.04%
Fair Value	$10.69	$12.36	$13.83
Upside / Downside	-89.94%	-88.37%	-86.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	867.00	745.26	640.61	550.66	473.34	406.88	419.08
Payout Ratio	87.89%	88.31%	88.73%	89.16%	89.58%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	762.00	658.15	568.44	490.95	424.01	366.19	387.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.25%	8.25%	8.25%
Growth Rate	-15.04%	-14.04%	-13.04%
Year 1 PV (M)	600.92	607.99	615.06
Year 2 PV (M)	473.88	485.10	496.45
Year 3 PV (M)	373.68	387.04	400.70
Year 4 PV (M)	294.67	308.79	323.41
Year 5 PV (M)	232.36	246.36	261.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,685.31	4,967.62	5,263.38
Equity Value (M)	6,660.81	7,002.89	7,360.03
Shares Outstanding (M)	236.77	236.77	236.77
Fair Value	$28.13	$29.58	$31.08
Upside / Downside	-73.52%	-72.16%	-70.74%

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Expand Energy Corporation (EXE)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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