Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

ESCO Technologies Inc. (ESE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$219.28 - $469.63$312.38
Multi-Stage$158.67 - $173.51$165.96
Blended Fair Value$239.17
Current Price$211.11
Upside13.29%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-0.15%-0.13%0.320.320.320.320.320.320.320.320.320.32
YoY Growth--0.19%-0.07%-0.19%-0.82%0.16%0.25%0.29%0.25%0.11%-1.45%
Dividend Yield--0.15%0.24%0.27%0.36%0.36%0.31%0.35%0.49%0.53%0.56%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)299.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)290.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)59.8437.4022.44
Cash Retained (M)290.96290.96290.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-59.84-37.40-22.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)231.12253.56268.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)25.8825.8825.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share8.939.8010.38
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share8.939.8010.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.2510.1210.70
WACC / Discount Rate9.83%9.83%9.83%
Growth Rate5.38%6.38%7.38%
Fair Value$219.28$312.38$469.63
Upside / Downside3.87%47.97%122.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)299.22318.32338.64360.26383.25407.72419.95
Payout Ratio2.76%20.21%37.66%55.10%72.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.2664.33127.52198.52278.06366.94388.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.83%9.83%9.83%
Growth Rate5.38%6.38%7.38%
Year 1 PV (M)58.0258.5759.12
Year 2 PV (M)103.74105.72107.72
Year 3 PV (M)145.66149.85154.11
Year 4 PV (M)184.02191.11198.39
Year 5 PV (M)219.04229.63240.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,395.613,559.803,730.29
Equity Value (M)4,106.094,294.674,490.26
Shares Outstanding (M)25.8825.8825.88
Fair Value$158.67$165.96$173.51
Upside / Downside-24.84%-21.39%-17.81%

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