Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Elders Limited (ELD.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$83.64 - $159.44$149.42
Multi-Stage$25.66 - $28.05$26.83
Blended Fair Value$88.13
Current Price$6.71
Upside1,213.38%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.28%34.99%0.350.450.450.300.150.120.000.000.000.01
YoY Growth---22.12%-0.56%52.16%92.38%30.76%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-34.45%
Dividend Yield--4.21%7.91%3.88%2.47%1.45%1.90%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)130.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)110.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)19.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.1416.349.80
Cash Retained (M)19.9519.9519.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.14-16.34-9.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)-6.193.6210.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)163.02163.02163.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.020.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.680.680.68
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.020.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.640.700.74
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$83.64$149.42$159.44
Upside / Downside1,146.42%2,126.85%2,276.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)130.70139.19148.24157.88168.14179.07184.44
Payout Ratio84.73%85.79%86.84%87.89%88.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)110.74119.41128.73138.76149.55161.16170.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)111.27112.32113.38
Year 2 PV (M)111.78113.91116.05
Year 3 PV (M)112.27115.49118.78
Year 4 PV (M)112.75117.09121.55
Year 5 PV (M)113.22118.69124.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,622.053,797.003,978.64
Equity Value (M)4,183.344,374.504,572.76
Shares Outstanding (M)163.02163.02163.02
Fair Value$25.66$26.83$28.05
Upside / Downside282.43%299.91%318.04%

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