Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Enterprise Financial Services Corp (EFSC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$147.25 - $520.19$243.84
Multi-Stage$93.79 - $102.53$98.08
Blended Fair Value$170.96
Current Price$57.98
Upside194.86%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.01%25.21%1.061.000.900.700.530.440.000.000.000.14
YoY Growth--5.84%11.21%28.48%32.12%19.48%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%25.90%
Dividend Yield--1.97%2.55%2.02%1.48%1.07%1.59%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)195.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)43.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)151.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)39.0824.4314.66
Cash Retained (M)151.76151.76151.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-39.08-24.43-14.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)112.68127.34137.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)37.3337.3337.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.023.413.67
LTM Dividend per Share1.171.171.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.023.413.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.194.584.84
WACC / Discount Rate8.50%8.50%8.50%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$147.25$243.84$520.19
Upside / Downside153.96%320.55%797.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)195.41208.12221.64236.05251.39267.73275.77
Payout Ratio22.34%35.87%49.40%62.93%76.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)43.6574.65109.50148.56192.23240.96255.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.50%8.50%8.50%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)68.1668.8069.45
Year 2 PV (M)91.2793.0194.77
Year 3 PV (M)113.06116.30119.61
Year 4 PV (M)133.57138.71143.99
Year 5 PV (M)152.86160.24167.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,941.803,083.893,231.41
Equity Value (M)3,500.723,660.963,827.14
Shares Outstanding (M)37.3337.3337.33
Fair Value$93.79$98.08$102.53
Upside / Downside61.75%69.16%76.84%

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