DDM Analysis: ECP.AX

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.69 - $4.07	$3.34
Multi-Stage	$5.38 - $5.92	$5.64
Blended Fair Value	$4.49
Current Price	$1.22
Upside	268.20%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	5.12%	29.24%	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01
YoY Growth	-	-	-1.38%	5.05%	5.45%	10.58%	6.25%	14.29%	27.25%	19.20%	102.63%	188.26%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.48%	3.37%	4.10%	3.54%	2.33%	3.01%	3.00%	2.31%	2.16%	1.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	6.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)	5.25

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1.39	0.87	0.52
Cash Retained (M)	5.25	5.25	5.25
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1.39	-0.87	-0.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)	3.86	4.38	4.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	22.14	22.14	22.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.17	0.20	0.21
LTM Dividend per Share	0.08	0.08	0.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.17	0.20	0.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.25	0.27	0.29
WACC / Discount Rate	7.13%	7.13%	7.13%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$2.69	$3.34	$4.07
Upside / Downside	120.65%	173.80%	233.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	6.94	6.87	6.80	6.73	6.66	6.60	6.80
Payout Ratio	24.35%	37.48%	50.61%	63.74%	76.87%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1.69	2.57	3.44	4.29	5.12	5.94	6.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.13%	7.13%	7.13%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	2.38	2.40	2.43
Year 2 PV (M)	2.94	3.00	3.06
Year 3 PV (M)	3.39	3.49	3.60
Year 4 PV (M)	3.74	3.89	4.05
Year 5 PV (M)	4.00	4.21	4.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)	102.61	107.95	113.51
Equity Value (M)	119.04	124.94	131.07
Shares Outstanding (M)	22.14	22.14	22.14
Fair Value	$5.38	$5.64	$5.92
Upside / Downside	340.77%	362.60%	385.30%

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ECP Emerging Growth Limited (ECP.AX)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener