Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Ecolab Inc. (ECL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$94.28 - $165.97$124.73
Multi-Stage$107.52 - $117.67$112.50
Blended Fair Value$118.61
Current Price$273.86
Upside-56.69%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.74%6.79%2.332.162.111.981.961.941.741.571.501.40
YoY Growth--7.61%2.41%6.43%1.00%1.43%11.36%10.65%4.96%6.69%16.35%
Dividend Yield--0.92%0.95%1.28%1.12%0.92%1.24%0.97%1.15%1.19%1.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,984.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)725.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,258.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)396.92248.08148.85
Cash Retained (M)1,258.801,258.801,258.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-396.92-248.08-148.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)861.881,010.731,109.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)285.45285.45285.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.023.543.89
LTM Dividend per Share2.542.542.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.023.543.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.566.086.43
WACC / Discount Rate8.67%8.67%8.67%
Growth Rate2.62%3.62%4.62%
Fair Value$94.28$124.73$165.97
Upside / Downside-65.57%-54.46%-39.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,984.602,056.362,130.712,207.752,287.582,370.292,441.40
Payout Ratio36.57%47.26%57.94%68.63%79.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)725.80971.781,234.601,515.151,814.372,133.262,258.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.67%8.67%8.67%
Growth Rate2.62%3.62%4.62%
Year 1 PV (M)885.62894.25902.88
Year 2 PV (M)1,025.381,045.461,065.74
Year 3 PV (M)1,146.821,180.681,215.19
Year 4 PV (M)1,251.551,301.061,352.01
Year 5 PV (M)1,341.051,407.681,476.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,040.0426,284.1427,577.20
Equity Value (M)30,690.4732,113.2733,589.97
Shares Outstanding (M)285.45285.45285.45
Fair Value$107.52$112.50$117.67
Upside / Downside-60.74%-58.92%-57.03%

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