Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Devon Energy Corporation (DVN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$95.74 - $239.93$143.81
Multi-Stage$66.51 - $72.67$69.53
Blended Fair Value$106.67
Current Price$35.06
Upside204.26%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS46.26%9.27%1.482.935.322.070.400.220.230.200.350.62
YoY Growth---49.57%-45.01%156.96%411.67%83.57%-6.04%17.32%-42.53%-44.19%2.59%
Dividend Yield--3.95%5.74%10.51%3.50%1.85%3.19%0.74%0.63%0.83%2.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,719.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)613.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,106.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)543.80339.88203.93
Cash Retained (M)2,106.002,106.002,106.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-543.80-339.88-203.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,562.201,766.131,902.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)635.00635.00635.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.462.783.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.970.970.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.462.783.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.433.753.96
WACC / Discount Rate9.27%9.27%9.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$95.74$143.81$239.93
Upside / Downside173.08%310.19%584.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,719.002,895.743,083.963,284.423,497.903,725.273,837.02
Payout Ratio22.55%36.04%49.53%63.02%76.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)613.001,043.511,527.392,069.772,676.213,352.743,549.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.27%9.27%9.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)945.97954.94963.91
Year 2 PV (M)1,255.211,279.121,303.26
Year 3 PV (M)1,541.961,586.231,631.33
Year 4 PV (M)1,807.401,876.911,948.40
Year 5 PV (M)2,052.662,151.812,254.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)34,631.3036,304.0138,040.73
Equity Value (M)42,234.5244,153.0246,142.38
Shares Outstanding (M)635.00635.00635.00
Fair Value$66.51$69.53$72.67
Upside / Downside89.71%98.32%107.26%

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