Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Deterra Royalties Limited (DRR.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.01 - $7.55$6.21
Multi-Stage$10.60 - $11.63$11.10
Blended Fair Value$8.66
Current Price$3.76
Upside130.19%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120192018
DPS0.00%0.00%0.230.320.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---26.80%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.17%7.90%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)310.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)290.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)19.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)62.1238.8223.29
Cash Retained (M)19.9719.9719.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-62.12-38.82-23.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)-42.15-18.85-3.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)529.62529.62529.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.08-0.04-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.550.550.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.08-0.04-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.470.510.54
WACC / Discount Rate7.18%7.18%7.18%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.01$6.21$7.55
Upside / Downside33.13%65.07%100.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)310.58307.48304.40301.36298.34295.36304.22
Payout Ratio93.57%92.86%92.14%91.43%90.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)290.61285.51280.48275.52270.64265.82281.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.18%7.18%7.18%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)263.68266.37269.06
Year 2 PV (M)239.23244.14249.10
Year 3 PV (M)217.04223.75230.60
Year 4 PV (M)196.89205.05213.46
Year 5 PV (M)178.60187.90197.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,518.154,753.424,998.39
Equity Value (M)5,613.585,880.636,158.19
Shares Outstanding (M)529.62529.62529.62
Fair Value$10.60$11.10$11.63
Upside / Downside181.90%195.31%209.24%

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