Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$160.06 - $278.49$210.76
Multi-Stage$218.20 - $239.70$228.75
Blended Fair Value$219.76
Current Price$542.94
Upside-59.52%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.34%2.38%0.830.800.760.750.740.740.690.650.610.64
YoY Growth--4.65%5.11%0.42%1.72%-0.09%7.11%6.42%7.25%-4.37%-3.56%
Dividend Yield--0.26%0.31%0.43%0.50%0.63%0.80%0.62%0.48%0.67%0.84%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)465.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)432.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)93.0258.1434.88
Cash Retained (M)432.17432.17432.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-93.02-58.14-34.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)339.15374.03397.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)37.9737.9737.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share8.939.8510.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.870.870.87
(+) Excess Retained per Share8.939.8510.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.8010.7211.33
WACC / Discount Rate7.56%7.56%7.56%
Growth Rate1.36%2.36%3.36%
Fair Value$160.06$210.76$278.49
Upside / Downside-70.52%-61.18%-48.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)465.08476.05487.28498.77510.54522.58538.26
Payout Ratio7.08%23.66%40.25%56.83%73.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.92112.64196.11283.46374.81470.32497.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.56%7.56%7.56%
Growth Rate1.36%2.36%3.36%
Year 1 PV (M)103.70104.72105.75
Year 2 PV (M)166.21169.50172.83
Year 3 PV (M)221.16227.77234.51
Year 4 PV (M)269.21280.00291.10
Year 5 PV (M)310.99326.64342.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,213.997,576.947,954.36
Equity Value (M)8,285.268,685.579,101.46
Shares Outstanding (M)37.9737.9737.97
Fair Value$218.20$228.75$239.70
Upside / Downside-59.81%-57.87%-55.85%

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