DDM Analysis: CVLG

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$19.81 - $39.84	$27.59
Multi-Stage	$22.86 - $25.07	$23.94
Blended Fair Value	$25.76
Current Price	$21.66
Upside	18.95%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.21	0.21	0.16	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	0.26%	34.85%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.95%	0.91%	0.88%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	32.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	6.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)	25.35

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	6.44	4.03	2.42
Cash Retained (M)	25.35	25.35	25.35
(-) Cash Required (M)	-6.44	-4.03	-2.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)	18.91	21.33	22.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	27.62	27.62	27.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.68	0.77	0.83
LTM Dividend per Share	0.25	0.25	0.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.68	0.77	0.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.93	1.02	1.08
WACC / Discount Rate	7.47%	7.47%	7.47%
Growth Rate	2.64%	3.64%	4.64%
Fair Value	$19.81	$27.59	$39.84
Upside / Downside	-8.53%	27.37%	83.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	32.22	33.39	34.60	35.86	37.17	38.52	39.67
Payout Ratio	21.30%	35.04%	48.78%	62.52%	76.26%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	6.86	11.70	16.88	22.42	28.34	34.67	36.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.47%	7.47%	7.47%
Growth Rate	2.64%	3.64%	4.64%
Year 1 PV (M)	10.78	10.89	10.99
Year 2 PV (M)	14.33	14.61	14.90
Year 3 PV (M)	17.54	18.06	18.59
Year 4 PV (M)	20.44	21.25	22.08
Year 5 PV (M)	23.03	24.18	25.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)	545.27	572.36	600.51
Equity Value (M)	631.41	661.35	692.44
Shares Outstanding (M)	27.62	27.62	27.62
Fair Value	$22.86	$23.94	$25.07
Upside / Downside	5.53%	10.53%	15.73%

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Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. (CVLG)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener