Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Canadian Tire Corporation, Limited (CTC-A.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$181.54 - $324.37$241.61
Multi-Stage$302.09 - $331.66$316.59
Blended Fair Value$279.10
Current Price$165.67
Upside68.47%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.21%9.79%6.536.555.914.924.774.404.033.082.862.76
YoY Growth---0.28%10.74%20.18%3.12%8.41%9.09%31.00%7.75%3.48%7.64%
Dividend Yield--4.37%4.86%3.35%2.61%2.68%5.18%2.77%1.85%1.81%2.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)729.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)362.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)367.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)145.9891.2454.74
Cash Retained (M)367.20367.20367.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-145.98-91.24-54.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)221.22275.96312.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)55.1055.1055.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.015.015.67
LTM Dividend per Share6.586.586.58
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.015.015.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.6011.5912.25
WACC / Discount Rate6.64%6.64%6.64%
Growth Rate0.76%1.76%2.76%
Fair Value$181.54$241.61$324.37
Upside / Downside9.58%45.84%95.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)729.90742.72755.77769.05782.56796.31820.20
Payout Ratio49.69%57.75%65.82%73.88%81.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)362.70428.95497.41568.15641.22716.68758.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.64%6.64%6.64%
Growth Rate0.76%1.76%2.76%
Year 1 PV (M)398.29402.25406.20
Year 2 PV (M)428.86437.41446.05
Year 3 PV (M)454.84468.51482.46
Year 4 PV (M)476.65495.85515.63
Year 5 PV (M)494.67519.71545.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,392.9315,121.4915,879.26
Equity Value (M)16,646.2317,445.2218,275.35
Shares Outstanding (M)55.1055.1055.10
Fair Value$302.09$316.59$331.66
Upside / Downside82.35%91.10%100.19%

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