DDM Analysis: CRSN.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$65.74 - $94.27	$79.70
Multi-Stage	$104.25 - $114.50	$109.27
Blended Fair Value	$94.49
Current Price	$105.00
Upside	-10.01%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	2.35	0.00	3.72	0.73	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	-100.00%	411.90%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.18%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	27,376.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	6,796.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)	20,580.63

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	5,475.37	3,422.10	2,053.26
Cash Retained (M)	20,580.63	20,580.63	20,580.63
(-) Cash Required (M)	-5,475.37	-3,422.10	-2,053.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)	15,105.26	17,158.53	18,527.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,892.00	2,892.00	2,892.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	5.22	5.93	6.41
LTM Dividend per Share	2.35	2.35	2.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share	5.22	5.93	6.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend	7.57	8.28	8.76
WACC / Discount Rate	9.29%	9.29%	9.29%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$65.74	$79.70	$94.27
Upside / Downside	-37.39%	-24.10%	-10.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	27,376.83	27,103.06	26,832.03	26,563.71	26,298.07	26,035.09	26,816.14
Payout Ratio	24.82%	37.86%	50.89%	63.93%	76.96%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	6,796.20	10,261.14	13,656.10	16,982.14	20,240.29	23,431.58	24,804.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.29%	9.29%	9.29%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	9,294.16	9,389.00	9,483.84
Year 2 PV (M)	11,203.55	11,433.36	11,665.50
Year 3 PV (M)	12,619.31	13,009.57	13,407.80
Year 4 PV (M)	13,623.05	14,187.67	14,769.65
Year 5 PV (M)	14,284.79	15,028.63	15,803.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)	240,452.05	252,972.94	266,010.08
Equity Value (M)	301,476.91	316,021.17	331,140.01
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,892.00	2,892.00	2,892.00
Fair Value	$104.25	$109.27	$114.50
Upside / Downside	-0.72%	4.07%	9.05%

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Financial Statements

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PT Carsurin Tbk (CRSN.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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