Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Central Pattana Public Company Limited (CPN-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$128.40 - $733.36$241.34
Multi-Stage$76.91 - $83.99$80.39
Blended Fair Value$160.86
Current Price$46.25
Upside247.81%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.28%12.55%1.821.150.600.700.811.121.400.830.700.65
YoY Growth--57.84%91.31%-13.64%-13.67%-27.55%-20.18%68.67%18.58%7.69%16.32%
Dividend Yield--3.88%1.83%0.88%1.18%1.39%2.61%1.87%1.06%1.23%1.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)16,551.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9,528.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)7,022.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,310.252,068.901,241.34
Cash Retained (M)7,022.747,022.747,022.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,310.25-2,068.90-1,241.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,712.504,953.845,781.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,488.444,488.444,488.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.831.101.29
LTM Dividend per Share2.122.122.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.831.101.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.953.233.41
WACC / Discount Rate7.92%7.92%7.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$128.40$241.34$733.36
Upside / Downside177.62%421.81%1,485.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)16,551.2317,627.0518,772.8119,993.0521,292.5922,676.6123,356.91
Payout Ratio57.57%64.06%70.54%77.03%83.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9,528.4911,291.1413,242.6815,400.2217,782.2820,408.9521,605.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.92%7.92%7.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)10,363.9010,462.1310,560.37
Year 2 PV (M)11,156.9811,369.4911,584.00
Year 3 PV (M)11,909.2112,251.0812,599.43
Year 4 PV (M)12,622.0213,107.4313,606.71
Year 5 PV (M)13,296.8113,939.0514,605.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)285,876.07299,684.00314,020.38
Equity Value (M)345,224.99360,813.18376,976.76
Shares Outstanding (M)4,488.444,488.444,488.44
Fair Value$76.91$80.39$83.99
Upside / Downside66.30%73.81%81.60%

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