Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Cogna Educação S.A. (COGN3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.41 - $6.19$5.29
Multi-Stage$6.12 - $6.73$6.42
Blended Fair Value$5.86
Current Price$3.34
Upside75.37%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.100.340.370.300.14
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-69.26%-7.73%22.65%115.95%-58.39%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.61%3.25%2.62%2.17%1.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,331.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)120.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,211.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)266.27166.4299.85
Cash Retained (M)1,211.041,211.041,211.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-266.27-166.42-99.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)944.781,044.631,111.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,879.221,879.221,879.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.500.560.59
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.500.560.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.570.620.66
WACC / Discount Rate10.71%10.71%10.71%
Growth Rate-1.89%-0.89%0.11%
Fair Value$4.41$5.29$6.19
Upside / Downside32.09%58.53%85.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,331.341,319.511,307.781,296.161,284.641,273.221,311.41
Payout Ratio9.04%25.23%41.42%57.61%73.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)120.30332.89541.70746.77948.151,145.901,213.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.71%10.71%10.71%
Growth Rate-1.89%-0.89%0.11%
Year 1 PV (M)297.64300.68303.71
Year 2 PV (M)433.05441.93450.89
Year 3 PV (M)533.78550.26567.09
Year 4 PV (M)605.95631.04656.89
Year 5 PV (M)654.78688.84724.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,984.829,452.149,938.70
Equity Value (M)11,510.0212,064.8812,641.58
Shares Outstanding (M)1,879.221,879.221,879.22
Fair Value$6.12$6.42$6.73
Upside / Downside83.38%92.22%101.41%

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