Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Capital One Financial Corporation (COF)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$42.35 - $76.71$56.67
Multi-Stage$53.50 - $58.44$55.92
Blended Fair Value$56.29
Current Price$212.58
Upside-73.52%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.36%3.22%1.951.951.992.400.961.571.621.631.701.71
YoY Growth--0.11%-2.00%-17.25%149.57%-38.91%-2.59%-0.90%-3.94%-0.49%20.18%
Dividend Yield--1.09%1.34%2.07%1.83%0.76%3.12%1.91%1.70%1.96%2.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,416.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,240.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)176.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)283.20177.00106.20
Cash Retained (M)176.00176.00176.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-283.20-177.00-106.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)-107.20-1.0069.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)478.13478.13478.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.220.000.15
LTM Dividend per Share2.592.592.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.220.000.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.372.592.74
WACC / Discount Rate8.08%8.08%8.08%
Growth Rate2.36%3.36%4.36%
Fair Value$42.35$56.67$76.71
Upside / Downside-80.08%-73.34%-63.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,416.001,463.541,512.681,563.471,615.971,670.231,720.34
Payout Ratio87.57%88.06%88.54%89.03%89.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,240.001,288.751,339.371,391.931,446.521,503.211,591.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.08%8.08%8.08%
Growth Rate2.36%3.36%4.36%
Year 1 PV (M)1,180.821,192.351,203.89
Year 2 PV (M)1,124.421,146.501,168.79
Year 3 PV (M)1,070.691,102.381,134.69
Year 4 PV (M)1,019.501,059.921,101.54
Year 5 PV (M)970.721,019.071,069.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,211.6621,218.4422,264.96
Equity Value (M)25,577.8026,738.6727,943.20
Shares Outstanding (M)478.13478.13478.13
Fair Value$53.50$55.92$58.44
Upside / Downside-74.83%-73.69%-72.51%

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