Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$67.11 - $158.67$98.91
Multi-Stage$50.36 - $54.86$52.57
Blended Fair Value$75.74
Current Price$44.49
Upside70.24%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.50%16.58%2.111.852.350.820.930.830.740.600.360.60
YoY Growth--13.83%-21.01%187.13%-12.02%11.88%11.59%24.76%65.17%-39.41%30.99%
Dividend Yield--4.76%3.56%6.27%2.11%4.79%8.71%3.99%3.01%1.65%3.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,655.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,755.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,900.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,331.00831.88499.13
Cash Retained (M)1,900.001,900.001,900.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,331.00-831.88-499.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)569.001,068.131,400.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,099.522,099.522,099.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.510.67
LTM Dividend per Share2.262.262.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.510.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.542.772.93
WACC / Discount Rate9.49%9.49%9.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$67.11$98.91$158.67
Upside / Downside50.84%122.31%256.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,655.007,087.587,548.278,038.908,561.439,117.939,391.46
Payout Ratio71.45%75.16%78.87%82.58%86.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,755.005,327.025,953.326,638.537,387.668,206.138,687.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.49%9.49%9.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,819.784,865.464,911.15
Year 2 PV (M)4,873.534,966.365,060.06
Year 3 PV (M)4,916.985,058.135,201.96
Year 4 PV (M)4,950.815,141.205,337.04
Year 5 PV (M)4,975.655,215.985,465.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)81,203.8485,126.0289,198.30
Equity Value (M)105,740.60110,373.15115,174.01
Shares Outstanding (M)2,099.522,099.522,099.52
Fair Value$50.36$52.57$54.86
Upside / Downside13.20%18.16%23.30%

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