DDM Analysis: CMRY.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1,617.61 - $2,290.24	$1,949.80
Multi-Stage	$2,573.49 - $2,816.29	$2,692.59
Blended Fair Value	$2,321.19
Current Price	$4,600.00
Upside	-49.54%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	90.00	70.00	63.02	50.41	0.00	0.00	6.30	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	28.58%	11.08%	25.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.98%	1.41%	1.36%	1.44%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,964,558.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,190,307.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	774,251.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	392,911.60	245,569.75	147,341.85
Cash Retained (M)	774,251.00	774,251.00	774,251.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-392,911.60	-245,569.75	-147,341.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)	381,339.40	528,681.25	626,909.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	7,934.68	7,934.68	7,934.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share	48.06	66.63	79.01
LTM Dividend per Share	150.01	150.01	150.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share	48.06	66.63	79.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend	198.07	216.64	229.02
WACC / Discount Rate	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$1,617.61	$1,949.80	$2,290.24
Upside / Downside	-64.83%	-57.61%	-50.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,964,558.00	1,944,912.42	1,925,463.30	1,906,208.66	1,887,146.58	1,868,275.11	1,924,323.36
Payout Ratio	60.59%	66.47%	72.35%	78.24%	84.12%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,190,307.00	1,292,807.38	1,393,138.72	1,491,334.15	1,587,426.37	1,681,447.60	1,779,999.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,163,408.95	1,175,280.47	1,187,151.99
Year 2 PV (M)	1,128,214.09	1,151,356.34	1,174,733.54
Year 3 PV (M)	1,086,852.72	1,120,464.38	1,154,761.96
Year 4 PV (M)	1,041,089.10	1,084,237.38	1,128,713.18
Year 5 PV (M)	992,375.94	1,044,051.26	1,097,857.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)	15,007,924.36	15,789,421.80	16,603,140.91
Equity Value (M)	20,419,865.16	21,364,811.63	22,346,358.76
Shares Outstanding (M)	7,934.68	7,934.68	7,934.68
Fair Value	$2,573.49	$2,692.59	$2,816.29
Upside / Downside	-44.05%	-41.47%	-38.78%

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Financial Statements

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Ticker

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Sector

PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk (CMRY.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener