Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Community Bank System, Inc. (CBU)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$108.54 - $378.71$179.18
Multi-Stage$71.11 - $77.64$74.32
Blended Fair Value$126.75
Current Price$58.64
Upside116.14%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.60%7.57%1.811.791.761.721.641.511.351.181.040.93
YoY Growth--0.71%1.84%2.57%4.50%8.59%12.23%14.75%13.18%11.72%6.70%
Dividend Yield--3.18%3.80%3.36%2.45%2.14%2.57%2.20%2.19%1.89%2.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)205.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)96.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)109.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41.1725.7315.44
Cash Retained (M)109.40109.40109.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-41.17-25.73-15.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)68.2383.6793.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)53.0053.0053.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.291.581.77
LTM Dividend per Share1.821.821.82
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.291.581.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.113.403.59
WACC / Discount Rate8.52%8.52%8.52%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$108.54$179.18$378.71
Upside / Downside85.10%205.56%545.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)205.83219.20233.45248.63264.79282.00290.46
Payout Ratio46.85%55.48%64.11%72.74%81.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)96.43121.61149.66180.85215.46253.80268.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.52%8.52%8.52%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)111.01112.06113.12
Year 2 PV (M)124.71127.09129.49
Year 3 PV (M)137.56141.51145.54
Year 4 PV (M)149.60155.36161.27
Year 5 PV (M)160.87168.64176.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,085.253,234.273,388.99
Equity Value (M)3,769.013,938.934,115.11
Shares Outstanding (M)53.0053.0053.00
Fair Value$71.11$74.32$77.64
Upside / Downside21.26%26.73%32.40%

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